Nexus 4 – The First 300 Billion Dollar Phone?

I’m an Apple Fan Boy, for decades, and an iOS developer as well.

Grenouille avec un téléphone portable

Everything at home has been designed in California and even my first PC (they didn’t call these machines PCs in these days) was an Apple II Plus.

Yes, I also develop with Java, Android and some other environments, for years, but if somebody has asked me in the past, what is the best phone (especially within in the last 2-4 years), I said, without any hesitation: ‘Of course, the iPhone!’

I was so fundamentally convinced by the superiority of the Apple products (software & hardware) that I also invested my money in Apple shares, very successfully, even when the stock price passed the 500$…and many people already commented: ‘What the hell..!’

And then the Nexus 4 appeared, quietly.

More or less with its appearance the Apple stock price started to tumble, slowly, and nobody really understood why, not in the beginning, not directly, but more and more people started to grasp, why the Apple phone magic might be over: The happy people who received the first wave of Nexus 4 phones were the first ones.

I’ve received my Nexus 4 probably a week ago. I often bought Android devices just to stay with Apple in the end. But this time it seems to be different, I’ve switched my daily phone and the platform… and I guess I will stay here at least until we will see a new iOS 7 and/or new iPhone.

apple

Why? This blog post explains it more or less very detailed or with one short statement:

It’s better in probably every area for half the price of an iPhone.

OK, but why is the Nexus 4 a 300 billion dollar phone? LG has to sell a billion phones to reach this number in terms of revenue.
No, it’s not meant in this direction.

The Nexus 4 phone could reduce the Apple’s current market capitalization by 300 billions back to 180 billions, the share price from 500 $ to something between 150 $ and 200 $.

Why? Because, if they want to compete with the market, or especially with the Nexus 4 and many coming cool and cheap Android phones Apple has to sell their iPhone(s) or coming iPhones for something in between 300$ and 400$, and this could maybe reduce their EPS from 45 to 25.

Many ‘coulds’ and ‘maybes’, I know, but the iPhone is Apple’s main revenue horse and the only Apple mainstream and mass market product today. If they loose their mass market product Apple will still be a cool company with cool products, but  for the niche again as Apple always was before the iPhone and Steve usually wanted to be.

But when and if this happens, Apple’s price tag has to be changed…maybe by 300 billions. Apple will then be the Porsche of the IT market again but with Porsche’s market cap and not with the Volkswagen market cap it has today.

And maybe everything started with the Nexus 4 – The first 300 Billion Dollar Phone…

nexus4-1

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